With respect to businesses large and small, one of the biggest issues if not the biggest issue is that we don’t know when the economy or at least large segments of the economy can be opened up again. If we knew that business could start up again on May 1 or May 15, then people and businesses could lay low during the shutdown and make it through to the other side. However, we are not being told anything like that. The end of the shutdown remains open-ended, and we are getting told things can start up again anywhere from Easter (President Trump, later modified) to 18 months from now (Ari Emanuel, an Obama advisor). That’s a large time frame to have to plan for.

Uncertainty

Uncertainty drives people and businesses to idleness. They don’t know where to go or what to do so they don’t do anything. Tension builds. Even people and companies that ordinarily take leadership roles can’t do so now because of the government-mandated shutdown. The only thing that is certain is that we are shut down now and likely will be for at least a few more weeks. Yet, the stock market is showing signs of life, especially during the past couple of weeks. Why is that? Stock investors are looking at daily Covid-19 infection data from around the world and trying to discern the rate of infections. The jump in stock prices has reflected that we are “beating the curve”, meaning the number of infections and deaths have been well below what was originally projected, and even the revised projections. The shutdown and other measures have worked thus far, but an abrupt return to normalcy means infections will spike again. The uncertainty is what the governments’ (plural) policy will be as to how and when the economy will be opened up again.

IMO

Uncertainty has been a part of the human fabric forever. Google “living with uncertainty” and see how many links pop up. I believe that the current generation is less able to deal with uncertainty than earlier generations. As forecasting and forecasting tools have improved, the current generation has become accustomed to a more certain level of belief as to what might happen in the future. Yet, Black Swan events such as Covid-19 still happen, and these wreak havoc with the forecasting models. As difficult as it is for many people, we need to accept that there is a level of uncertainty out there that we cannot enumerate or control, get comfortable with that, and go on with our lives. Better to move forward in more uncertain circumstances than to be rendered idle and unable to act because we don’t know when or how we can have a life again. With respect to our government, especially national and state governments, people and businesses really need a time framework as to when we think we can reopen the economy in whatever capacity. The current open-ended situation must end sooner rather than later.